On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the final verification of China's GDP (GDP) data for 2015. Soon after, the preliminary accounting data of the Chinese economy in 2016 will also be released. Compared with the rapid growth in previous years, the slowdown in China's economic growth in recent years has led some views to regard China as the cause of “the weak world economic recovery”. In this regard, many scholars at home and abroad have pointed out that the causes of the weakness of the world economy are complex, with cyclical factors and a superposition of structural and institutional contradictions. The main reason is not China. As far as the actual economic performance is concerned, China has not only dragged the world economy back, but has contributed a lot of growth, business opportunities and hopes to the world economy.
Foreign demand is weak, domestic demand is active
Any savvy businessman likes two kinds of people: one is the customer who can bring the order, and the other is the other seller who can provide them with good and cheap goods. After all, these two people can make themselves better.
For many economies in the world, China clearly plays this positive role. From the perspective of production, China's industrial upgrading and innovation requires a large number of imported electromechanical and high-tech products, which provides a broad market for high-end products in developed countries. At the same time, China's strong demand for primary products has also become an important force driving economic growth in the relevant developing countries. From a consumption perspective, despite the weakening of the world economy, external demand is weak, but strong and escalating domestic demand has brought more business to other economies while stabilizing the Chinese economy.
According to relevant data, in the first three quarters of 2016, China imported 686.65 billion yuan of consumer goods, an increase of 11.1% over the same period last year. Among them, China's imports from New Zealand, Japan, the European Union and the United States increased by 15.8%, 12.4%, 10.8% and 8.8% respectively. In particular, health care products, meat, aquatic products, clothing and other areas involving consumption upgrades have seen good growth. Experts believe that these brilliant data are in stark contrast to the stagnation of global trade.
Growth contribution is second to none
So, what is the reason for the weak recovery of the world economy?
Xu Hongcai, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, pointed out in an interview with this reporter that analyzing the world economic situation and problems needs to be fully grasped from a longer time and a broader perspective. The current poor performance of the world economy has both profound cyclical reasons and its own structural problems.
"From a vertical perspective, the new technologies, new industries, global division of labor systems, and rules systems that have been formed since the 1960s and 1970s have weakened the momentum for strong global economic growth, while new technologies, new industries, and new regulatory systems are Brewing, full of uncertainty, has not yet played a strong role. From a horizontal perspective, the developed economies such as the US, Europe and Japan have entered the post-industrialization and aging era, and the growth momentum has slowed down; while emerging economies have great potential, but Due to the low-end industrial structure, low efficiency, and weak external demand, it is difficult to make rapid efforts. It can be expected that the global economic weakness will continue for a long time." Xu Hongcai analyzed.
Against the water, the dynamism is valuable. According to a latest report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China contributed 1.2 percentage points to the global economic growth rate in 2016, while the United States contributed 0.3 percentage points and Europe contributed 0.2 percentage points. This means that China's contribution to world economic growth exceeds that of developed countries, contributing about 39% to global economic growth, and is second to none in the world.
Not only that, but the optimization and upgrading of China's economic structure has also brought more business opportunities to the world. According to Zhang Jianping, director of the Regional Economic Cooperation Center of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, with the active activities of China's venture capital and private equity funds, foreign investment in the hotspots of China's rail transit, smart manufacturing, IT, energy conservation and environmental protection and new energy vehicles has very good prospects.
Active transformation and expansion potential
As the saying goes: "It is better to teach people to fish than to teach people." China's contribution to the world economy is also reflected in the development concept. Some scholars pointed out that the five development concepts of "innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing" proposed by China have been promoted to the consensus of "strong", "sustainable", "balanced" and "inclusive growth" under the framework of the G20. Thus, in a higher dimension, China's unique contribution to world development is reflected.
In practice, China is guided by these concepts, actively reforms, and actively adapts to the world and its new development of normality, thereby expanding more economic growth potential.
“We need to see that China is an important part of the world economy. The momentum of strong growth in the past is indeed weakening. However, if we comprehensively analyze the total volume and growth rate, China is still the most important engine of the world economy.” Xu Hongcai said In the future, China's contribution to the world economy will mainly reflect three aspects: First, new urbanization and economic transformation will bring about an increase in residents' income. Increasingly and diversified demand will benefit the relevant countries' exports to China. Second, China Overseas The expansion of investment will bring local taxation and a large number of employment opportunities. Third, under the background of protectionism, China’s firm pace of opening up will form a strong positive demonstration effect and help economic globalization.
Analysts pointed out that China has abundant human resources, strong financial strength and ever-increasing technical level. From the perspective of the supply of production factors and the prospects for reform, China is fully capable of maintaining a high level of economic growth and contributing more positive energy to the world economy.
